David Weinberger quotes Clay Shirky who quotes Marko Ahtisaari:
Mobile phones are the first things since keys that everyone carries.
This is a profound realization. Because it changes what it means to be a human. This doesn’t happen everyday.
Humans used to be those creatures that can eat, drink, sleep, talk, walk around, perceive the world through a number of perceptory organs, use their brains, and manipulate objects with their hands. Now, humans can do all that plus instantly talk to any other human they know (well, almost). That’s as if fish were suddenly to grow legs. Or, for that matter, as if pigs could fly.
Why is this such a big deal? Because when you reason about humans or group behaviour or society, you can take this new ability for granted. People can instantly contact each other. This changes some things, and provides a nice frame for thinking about what to expect in the future. Devices will transform until they almost feel and behave like a part of your body – natural, unobstrusive, effective. Some social rules and norms and behaviours will change. Less tolerance for suprises (“You could have told me!”). Less scheduling and planning, more flexibility in day-to-day routine. Faster decision-making. Less need for punctuality. More need for quick short-range transportation.
This also gives a hint about where the telcos should be heading. Making and receiving calls should require an absolute minimum of fuzz. Presence indication is needed (“work mode”, “home/friends mode”, “private mode” etc.). Location-awareness of devices is very pervasive. On the other hand, I don’t see how a wider pipe (UMTS) or crappy cameras would add value to that new “human capability”. But then again, mobile video would be hot …
It will take a generation or so for this to fully develop. Until folks who grow up with that new, extended conception of human capabilities shape society.
Interesting times!